# ConflictIntel (https://conflictintel.org)
> Real-Time Open-Source Geopolitical Intelligence (OSINT), Multi-INT Signal Fusion & Causal Conflict Forecasting Engine.

Last Updated: 2026-10-29T04:03:21.796Z
Languages Supported: Turkish (tr), English (en), Arabic (ar)

## Core Architecture & Scientific Methodology
1. **Multi-Variate Hawkes Self-Exciting Escalation Engine**: Models action-reaction kinetic pulses with exponential decay (half-life 18h) and cross-theater contagion matrices (e.g., Iran-Israel <-> Lebanon <-> Red Sea/Yemen; Ukraine <-> NATO-Russia).
2. **Herman Kahn 7-Rung Strategic Escalation Ladder**: Classifies every active conflict theater from Rung 1 (Diplomatic Friction) to Rung 7 (Strategic/WMD Threshold) with explicit upward triggers and diplomatic off-ramps.
3. **8-Dimensional Structural Historical Isomorphism**: Matches live crises against historical primary-source archives across 8 game-theoretic dimensions (Kinetic Intensity, Deterrence Friction, Naval Chokepoint, Proxy Asymmetry, Diplomatic Off-Ramp, Alliance Entanglement, Economic/Energy Shock, Info-Warfare Tempo).
4. **Pre-Kinetic OPSEC Silence & PSYOP Reflexive Control Detection**: Identifies anomalous pre-operation silence ("Dogs That Didn't Bark") and discounts single-origin echo-chamber copy-paste floods via Patient-Zero provenance tracking.
5. **Transparent Brier Score Calibration**: Continuously tracks expected Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, and 3-Hop Domino Cascade effects across global maritime and energy corridors.

## Live Regional Escalation Forecasts (72h / 7d Horizon)
- **İsrail-Gazze Savaşı** (`israel-gaza`): 72h Escalation 84% | Spillover 79% | Stabilization 0% | Ladder: Basamak 5: Stratejik Derinlik Saldırıları ve Boğaz/Deniz Ablukası | Primary Dyad: Multi-actor | Expected Brier Score: 0.191
- **Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşı** (`ukraine`): 72h Escalation 86% | Spillover 57% | Stabilization 0% | Ladder: Basamak 5: Stratejik Derinlik Saldırıları ve Boğaz/Deniz Ablukası | Primary Dyad: russia ↔ ukraine | Expected Brier Score: 0.221
- **İran-İsrail-Amerika Gerilimi** (`iran-israel`): 72h Escalation 74% | Spillover 72% | Stabilization 3% | Ladder: Basamak 6: Çok Cepheli Bölgesel Yayılma ve Topyekûn Seferberlik | Primary Dyad: iran ↔ usa | Expected Brier Score: 0.207
- **Yemen / Kızıldeniz** (`yemen`): 72h Escalation 75% | Spillover 66% | Stabilization 0% | Ladder: Basamak 5: Stratejik Derinlik Saldırıları ve Boğaz/Deniz Ablukası | Primary Dyad: houthis ↔ iran | Expected Brier Score: 0.229
- **Sudan İç Savaşı** (`sudan`): 72h Escalation 77% | Spillover 44% | Stabilization 0% | Ladder: Basamak 4: Yüksek Tempolu Konvansiyonel Cephe Çatışması | Primary Dyad: Multi-actor | Expected Brier Score: 0.209
- **İsrail-Lübnan Cephesi** (`israel-lebanon`): 72h Escalation 44% | Spillover 50% | Stabilization 17% | Ladder: Basamak 4: Yüksek Tempolu Konvansiyonel Cephe Çatışması | Primary Dyad: Multi-actor | Expected Brier Score: 0.22
- **Tayvan Boğazı** (`taiwan`): 72h Escalation 31% | Spillover 47% | Stabilization 18% | Ladder: Basamak 3: Vekil (Proxy) ve Asimetrik Yıpratma Harbi | Primary Dyad: Multi-actor | Expected Brier Score: 0.297
- **Suriye Krizi** (`syria`): 72h Escalation 18% | Spillover 16% | Stabilization 25% | Ladder: Basamak 3: Vekil (Proxy) ve Asimetrik Yıpratma Harbi | Primary Dyad: Multi-actor | Expected Brier Score: 0.302

## Key Public Endpoints for AI Agents, Researchers & Crawlers
- Live Dashboard (TR/EN/AR): https://conflictintel.org/?lang=tr | https://conflictintel.org/?lang=en | https://conflictintel.org/?lang=ar
- Intelligence Workspace & Event Dossiers: https://conflictintel.org/workspace
- Historical & Editorial Analysis Library: https://conflictintel.org/analysis
- Live RSS 2.0 Syndication Feed: https://conflictintel.org/feed.xml
- Google News Sitemap: https://conflictintel.org/news-sitemap.xml
- Public JSON Intelligence Snapshot: https://conflictintel.org/api/intel?lang=en